Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.8pp above current market price; market at 87% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.0% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
85% / 87%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
87%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706353
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 28, 2026: 94%, June 30, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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