Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
Closed March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
3% / 48%
Spread
45.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Thunder (-6.5)" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 45.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Thunder (-6.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1722550
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