Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
Closed March 26, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2.0M
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
51% / 53%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
61%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
52% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: +17.0pp
53% → 70%
Mar 27, 2026
Current
70% YES (+17.0pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pistons (-4.5)" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.0M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Spread: Pistons (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1726001
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Full price history for your own analysis.