ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3?
Share on X

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-16.7pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743641

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this