Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Wizards vs. Heat
Closed April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$886K
Liquidity
$90K
Bid / Ask
5% / 6%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Wizards vs. Heat" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $886K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Wizards vs. Heat." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1776272
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 127.5: 74%, Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 128.5: 72%, Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 246.5: 70%.
Wizards vs. Heat
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
6% YES — lowest in period
Apr 4, 2026
Biggest move: -9.0pp
28% → 19%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
6% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this