ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5
Share on X

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES
47%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

45% / 49%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848816

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 127.5: 74%, Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 128.5: 72%, Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 246.5: 70%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

47% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 54%99%
Buy YES@ 54¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 47¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this