Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?
Closes April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$275K
Liquidity
$95K
Bid / Ask
99% / 99%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $275K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1831366
This event has 21 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $67,000 on April 4?: 100%, Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?: 99%, Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?: 71%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
84% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Biggest move: +10.0pp
85% → 95%
Apr 4, 2026
Current
98% YES (+3.0pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this