ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$4K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.1pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12)" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847719

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

92% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +5.1pp

93% → 99%

Apr 7, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Current

97% YES (-2.1pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 98%99%
Buy YES@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 2¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this