ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-8.6pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847742

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: -5.5pp

13% → 7%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

9% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this