ForecastMind
Markets/Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)
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Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
24%FIS
1ppvs market 25%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 25% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.6% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -0.6% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑
-1.4pp
Live compute06:41 AM

Polymarket Price

25%YES
75%NO

Volume 24h

$731

Liquidity

$384

Bid / Ask

21% / 29%

Spread

8.00pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $731 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1847740

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 25%99%
Buy YES@ 25¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 75¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this