Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Magic vs. Celtics
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.4M
Liquidity
$611K
Bid / Ask
84% / 85%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
85%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Magic vs. Celtics" at 85% YES / 15% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.4M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Magic vs. Celtics." Prediction market snapshot: YES 85%, NO 15%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891029
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Magic vs. Celtics: 85%, Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5: 62%, Magic vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5: 59%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 10, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
19%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -84.5pp
85% → 0%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
91% YES — highest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this