Markets/US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

Data as of Apr 7, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC

Closes May 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

40%FIS

−1ppvs market 41%

Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil -1.5% ↓, VIX +3.6% ↑, Gold +0.3% ↑

+0.3pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:55 AM

Polymarket Price

38%YES

62%NO

Volume 24h

$80K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

37% / 39%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.7pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1896585

Outcome Markets12 markets

This event has 12 active outcome markets. December 31: 74%, June 30: 56%, May 31: 45%.

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

74%