US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$88K
Bid / Ask
68% / 69%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
69%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
82% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
67% YES — lowest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
69% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 69%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1571566
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in March 2026?
↑ 0.95Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
↑ 0.94Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
↑ 0.94Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.