US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
Consensus Probability
17%
Weak5%
Polymarket29% avg · 9 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | 8% | $1.3M | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | 23% | $343K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | 34% | $329K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by March 31? | 14% | $242K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | 11% | $160K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | 14% | $155K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | 52% | $128K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | 43% | $99K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | 69% | $19K | standalone |