ForecastMind
Markets/Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Closes April 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES
47%NO

Volume 24h

$742K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

73% / 74%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $742K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918061

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8: 80%, Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9: 60%, Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 54%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+8.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Apr 15, 2026

Biggest move: +9.0pp

42% → 51%

Apr 15, 2026

Current

51% YES (+9.0pp recent)

Apr 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 54%99%
Buy YES@ 54¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 47¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this