Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hornets (-8.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$560
Liquidity
$42K
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-8.5)" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $560 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Hornets (-8.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1944201
This event has 9 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-13.5): 100%, Spread: Hornets (-12.5): 100%, Spread: Hornets (-11.5): 100%.
Spread: Hornets (-8.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
43% YES — lowest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: +28.0pp
43% → 71%
Apr 11, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this