Spread: Hornets (-14.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$56K
Liquidity
$239K
Bid / Ask
49% / 50%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-14.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $56K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Hornets (-14.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1960715
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-7.5): 72%, Spread: Hornets (-8.5): 69%, Spread: Hornets (-10.5): 63%.
Spread: Hornets (-14.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
49% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this