Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hornets (-7.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$76K
Bid / Ask
70% / 72%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
72%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-7.5)" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Hornets (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1944454
This event has 8 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-7.5): 72%, Spread: Hornets (-8.5): 69%, Spread: Hornets (-10.5): 63%.
Spread: Hornets (-7.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Trough probability
38% YES — lowest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
38%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: +17.5pp
53% → 70%
Apr 12, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this