ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
Share on X

Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

Closed April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

57% / 60%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1961045

Outcome Markets15 markets

This event has 15 active outcome markets. Hawks vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5: 100%, Hawks vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5: 100%, Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5: 67%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+34.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

53% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: +35.0pp

53% → 88%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

88% YES (+35.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this