US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.1pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -5.0% ↓, VIX -4.0% ↓, Gold +1.5% ↑.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1982152
This event has 13 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 90%, April 21, 2026: 73%, April 22, 2026: 72%.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
43% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -10.5pp
20% → 10%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
10% YES (-10.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this