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Markets/Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$169K

Liquidity

$12K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $169K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/550694

Outcome Markets60 markets

This event has 60 active outcome markets. Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 F: 100%, Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%, Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%.

Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this