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Markets/Will Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Will Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$950

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

48% / 53%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $950 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/902122

Outcome Markets60 markets

This event has 60 active outcome markets. Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 F: 100%, Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%, Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%.

Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

51%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 51%99%
Buy YES@ 51¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this