Will South America win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
21% / 22%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2026
49 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will South America win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will South America win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/840931
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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