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Markets/Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES
69%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$352

Bid / Ask

33% / 45%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/902144

Outcome Markets60 markets

This event has 60 active outcome markets. Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 F: 100%, Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%, Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?: 100%.

Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

32%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 32%99%
Buy YES@ 32¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this