Markets/Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:06 PM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$682K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+73.9pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559669

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