Markets/Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:07 AM UTC

Closes June 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

84%YES

17%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

83% / 84%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

84%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

2025

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+26.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +16.5pp

52% → 69%

Feb 27, 2026

Peak probability

91% YES — highest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Current

84% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 84%99%

Buy YES@ 84¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO@ 17¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?" at 84% YES / 16% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 84%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 84%, NO 16%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/564162