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Markets/Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
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Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Closes May 31, 2026

Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

22%YES
79%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$440K

Bid / Ask

21% / 22%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

16% → 22%

Mar 11, 2026

Peak probability

23% YES — highest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 22%99%
Buy YES@ 22¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566142