Markets/Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:46 PM UTC

Closes May 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

91%YES

10%NO

Volume 24h

$36K

Liquidity

$609K

Bid / Ask

89% / 90%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

91%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

2025

Full event →

the 2025–26 English Premier League?

90%

the 2025–26 English Premier League?

10%

the 2025–26 English Premier League?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+32.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +16.0pp

66% → 82%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

92% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

91% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 91%99%

Buy YES@ 91¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.3%

½ Kelly2.6%

Buy NO@ 9¢

-5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566187