Markets/Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:06 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$65K

Bid / Ask

38% / 39%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+28.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +9.7pp

26% → 35%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

36% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616902