Markets/Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:35 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

38%YES

62%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$30K

Bid / Ask

37% / 39%

Spread

2.20pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-12.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

42% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -9.7pp

53% → 43%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

46% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 38%99%

Buy YES@ 38¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 62¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/618454