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Markets/Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
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Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Closes June 2, 2026

Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral…

2026

Full event →

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629032