Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:32 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

83%YES

18%NO

Volume 24h

$37K

Liquidity

$50K

Bid / Ask

82% / 83%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

83%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

73% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

62% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -14.5pp

77% → 62%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

85% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

83% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 83%99%

Buy YES@ 83¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%

½ Kelly1.4%

Buy NO@ 18¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?" at 83% YES / 17% NO. In the last 24 hours, $37K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 83%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 83%, NO 17%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/631181