Markets/Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 01:11 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

25%YES

75%NO

Volume 24h

$60

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

23% / 27%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 25%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 75¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/635014

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