Markets/Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 08:59 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

$222K

Liquidity

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-35.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -22.5pp

28% → 5%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/645997

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