Markets/Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:35 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

59%YES

41%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$95K

Bid / Ask

55% / 56%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

45% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 59%99%

Buy YES@ 59¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 41¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665374