Markets/Canada recession before 2027?

Canada recession before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:46 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

40%YES

61%NO

Volume 24h

$33

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

39% / 40%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

24% YES — lowest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: -15.0pp

42% → 27%

Mar 6, 2026

Current

39% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 40%99%

Buy YES@ 40¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 61¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Canada recession before 2027?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Canada recession before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/670098