Markets/Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?

Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:38 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

1.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 12, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678775