Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$214
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
4% / 7%
Spread
3.40pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-5.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $214 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678784
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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