Markets/AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:37 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$286

Liquidity

$14K

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

14% → 22%

Mar 11, 2026

Current

19% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $286 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/691340