Markets/Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:10 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$151

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

13% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

38%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +35.0pp

14% → 50%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

75% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

24% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 23%99%

Buy YES@ 23¢

Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $151 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/694940