Markets/Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 04:24 PM UTC

Closes June 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

24%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

$46

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $46 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/695083

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