Markets/Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC

Closes June 16, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in…

Full event →

the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia

11%

the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/708766