Markets/Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:00 AM UTC

Closes December 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$129K

Bid / Ask

18% / 18%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

2026

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+11.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Biggest move: +9.2pp

11% → 20%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

18% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/898412