Markets/Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:12 AM UTC

Closes June 9, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$126

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

10% / 14%

Spread

3.40pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $126 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40 percentage points. The market closes on June 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/904691

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