Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:02 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

18%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

16% / 19%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

18% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943821

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