Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:32 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$343

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

9% / 9%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

6% → 12%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $343 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943824