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Markets/Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
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Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES
68%NO

Volume 24h

$423

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

24% / 39%

Spread

14.80pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $423 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 14.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/948639

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. Kash Patel leave the Trump administration bef: 75%, Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration : 65%, Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration be: 57%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 32%99%
Buy YES@ 32¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this