Markets/Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:14 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

12% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -15.0pp

27% → 12%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

40% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996326