Markets/Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:09 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$45

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

3% / 5%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996332