Markets/Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

39%YES

61%NO

Volume 24h

$201

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

33% / 43%

Spread

10.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

49% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: +5.5pp

49% → 54%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

51% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 39%99%

Buy YES@ 39¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 61¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $201 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1321865